I dont care what the weatherman says, if the weatherman says its raining, you will never hear me complaining… Words that until today you might have heard Lewis Hamilton singing. But today in the rain it went slightly wrong.
I am 100% sure that in a race condition in the rain Lewis Hamilton will be very difficult to beat, but today, one little gamble completely wiped out any chance of a Q3 show for the Brit, It wasnt just Lewis who struggled in the rain.
From the outset, Kimi Raikkonen and Felipe Massa both struggled to find grip and speed, Massa was lucky enough to get the reset into Q3 just scraping in 10th place but the unlucky ones where, Robert Kubica, current world champion Kimi Raikkonen and current championship leader Lewis Hamilton.
Monza was set for a shock and the underdogs where going for it hammer and tong to ensure a shock was on the cards.
Sure enough, as the chequered flag fell we had a record breaker. Sebastian Vettel, the young German in his Toro Rosso stuck his STR3 on pole position becoming the youngest F1 driver ever to get a pole position. Followed closely by McLaren driver Heikki Kovalainen who was very fast all session in the MP4-23.
So where did it all go wrong for our man Lewis?
At the end of Q1 the track seemed as though it was drying up and there was certainly a tram line appearing, Lewis and his race engineers took a gamble into Q2 and thought that maybe intermediate tyres would work with the tram line but it turned out that the surface water was too much for the intermediates to clear.
A change was needed so back into the pits car 22 went, a quick stop for wets but he couldnt get back out because of the traffic so he lost more time waiting for the go from the pit wall.
Finally Lewis got back out onto the track but tyre pressure was down, temperature was lost and time was running out, the rain was heavier and that window of opportunity was closing, and fast.
As the clock counted down the rain was getting heavier and confidence was getting lower and lower for Hamilton after a spin at Ascari corner, the opportunity was gone and the time wouldnt ever be made back up. So as the timer ran out in Q2 Lewis was sitting in P15 and that was the end of that.
It was Lewis Hamiltons lowest qualifying position in his career, but should we give up on him yet, I dont think so, and this is why…
Heikki Kovalainen drove a great session all day and stuck his car on the front row of the grid, fuel strategies taken into consideration he could certainly get the jump on the young Toro Rosso driver to be first into the chicane and from there he can control the race and hope that his strategies are working well for him and there are no safety car periods.
So to Mr Hamilton, what are his options?
I think for him to go on a 2 stop strategy he is making things very hard for himself, yes he is in a quicker car but to go on a 2 stop strategy the same as the front runners would be an uphill struggle and leaves everything to be done on the track.
Because Lewis is out of the top 10 he now has all the options at his disposal, he doesnt have to start the race on his closing qualifying fuel load and set up, only the top 10 have to do that.
He could fuel very lightly and run it out on a 3 stop strategy, yes he would have to make 1 more stop but he will be very light and overtaking will be easier and his pit stops will be very short, just a splash and dash pit stop can be done in 5 seconds, the way Lewis runs his tyres down this would be an excellent option for him to consider.
Lewis 2nd option would be to go on a 1 stop strategy, fuel heavily and get the jump in the fields 2nd round of pit stops, this means he would have to take it easy when running on the soft tyres but when on the hards he will be heavy and will have to work very hard and hope that the raw performance of the MP4-23 is enough to help him make the passes he needs.
I think realistically with either the 1 or 3 stop option he can look to getting a points finish and why not even a podium, Lewis loves a challenge and certainly can overtake with the best of them, providing all passes are done legally and the FIA are in a good mood then he will be laughing.
He can forget about Felipe Massa for this race, the best he can hope for is a reliability problem with the F2008 and maybe bringing his GP to an early end, apart from that Massa WILL outscore him in the race and the championship table will have a new leader.
He should just concentrate on damage limitation and remember that Robert Kubica and Kimi Raikkonen are the ones he is racing as they are in the same boat as he is come lights out on Sunday. It will be VERY interesting to see what strategies they try.
As a McLaren fan I want to see Heikki dominate the race from the start, I want to see Lewis going for glory on a 3 stopper and hopefully get a top 5, maybe a podium with some bad luck on other drivers parts.
One thing is for sure, DONT BLINK… You might just miss it, its going to be a VERY interesting race from lights out to chequered flag.





